Publication Details

Between 2021 and 2025, over 28 million cumulative migration movements were recorded across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region spanning nearly thirty countries. This report maps those flows using bilateral origin destination modeling, projects 2026 annual flows based on averaged baseline data and geopolitical drivers, and identifies the structural forces - such as conflict, climate, and labour demand - that will define MENA migration through 2030. It finds that (1) conflict-driven displacement from Syria, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Palestine dominates the largest corridors; (2) Gulf-bound labour migration from Egypt, Pakistan, Yemen, and Jordan constitutes the second dominant structural pattern; (3) Iran’s 2026 war has introduced the largest new displacement dynamic in the dataset, with 300,000+ projected annual arrivals to Turkey alone; (4) climate hazards in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Sudan are already generating outflows and will intensify as groundwater declines, temperatures breach physiological limits, and agricultural systems fail; and (5) policy responses are failing and efforts to contain migration are not a durable solution. The report presents reform proposals on legal status, labour market integration, digital identity, and housing.